An estimated 121.5 million tax filers, nearly three in four (74.2%), will be eligible to donate to a scholarship granting organization and claim the Education Freedom Tax Credit (EFTC) in tax year 2027.

More than 60% of all filers (100.5 million tax units) could donate $1,700 and receive the maximum credit. Another 21.1 million owe less than $1,700 in federal income tax and could claim a credit up to their full liability.

The eligible donor pool is more than double the 47 million in widely cited earlier estimates, which counted only filers earning above $85,000. Two-thirds (66.5%) of filers below that level who owe federal income tax will owe at least $1,700 in 2027.

If one in ten eligible donors participates, the EFTC would raise $18.8 billion a year for K-12 scholarships. At 20% participation, $37.6 billion would exceed federal spending on Title I and IDEA combined.

The 31 states that have opted in or signaled intent to opt in are home to 68.3 million eligible donors with $104.9 billion in giving capacity (56% of the national total). The 20 jurisdictions yet to decide hold 53.2 million eligible donors and $83.0 billion, but their 20.8 million eligible students cannot receive a scholarship until their state opts in.

Donors do not need to front the gift and wait for tax filing season the following year. Under existing withholding rules, any donor can reduce federal withholding on Form W-4 and make regular donations in the same amount. If donors reduce their W-4 withholding by about $65 per biweekly paycheck, they will give the full $1,700 to a local SGO over the course of a year and minimize concerns about reduced cash-flow upfront.

If every eligible donor gave the maximum the credit allows, giving would reach a theoretical upper bound of $160 billion a year under more conservative giving assumptions (see 2% of income affordability restriction in the brief) or $187.9 billion a year if every eligible donor gave the full $1,700 or their full tax liability, whichever is less. Both figures are upper bounds on the theoretical upper limit of available tax credits and are not projections.

Treasury has not yet ruled on whether married couples filing jointly may claim $3,400 per return. If it does, national giving capacity (100% participation) would rise by another $75.1 billion.